Some notes on Hajj

Old Turkish Map of Mecca

As the Hajj approaches, late in November, there are serious fears of it becoming the nexus of an epidemic. Fears of the H1N1 virus are widespread, though the threat may be more apparent than real. Also feared, and with good reason, is polio. All but eradicated in much of the world, reservoirs of polio are still to be found in at least four countries sending large numbers of pilgrims on Hajj - Bangladesh, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Pilgrims coming from those countries for the ritual visit to Mecca will be dosed with an oral polio vaccine on arrival in order to keep the highly contagious disease from spreading during the Hajj the Science section of the New York Times reported Tuesday 29 September 2009.

This afternoon I read a fascinating article on attitude changes among Hajjis in Pakistan, one of the first social scientific studies I have encountered to examine pilgrimages using statistical techniques. In order to limit the number arriving each year, Saudi Arabia allots quotas of Hajj visas to each of the various countries with large Muslim populations. Pakistan gets about 150,00 such visas each year. About half go to specific groups - the army, the civil service, and tour operators - while the remainder are distributed by lottery. Using a sample of those entered in the lottery for visas to visit Mecca, the study compares attitudes of those who won visas and made the Hajj with those who were unsuccessful. It finds some significant attitudinal shifts. Instead of promoting militancy and reactionary attitudes, participation in the Hajj seems to foster a greater tolerance, including more relaxed attitudes toward the role of women. The article in the August 2009 (volume CXXIV #3, pp.1133-1170) issue of the Quarterly Journal of Economics is by David Clingsmith et al. and is titled "Estimating the Impact of the Hajj."I strongly recommend at least the beginning and final sections of the article. For non-social scientists to whom statistics are baffling, the middle part of the article could prove difficult.